There is a unified theory of Trump and it’s simple as it only has three pillars:
1) Policy Goal: Extend the expiring tax cuts via reconciliation. This was his only achievement in Trump 1.0 and to do this he must demonstrate the tax cuts will be revenue neutral so raising import taxes and cutting government services and all forms of foreign aid are part of this.
2) Personal Enrichment: Make as much money for himself and family as possible. This is so insidious and audacious as per everything from NFTs and gold sneakers to cryptocurrency bribes and 747 airplanes. This is the greatest corruption in American history.
3) Personal Protection: He is still a convicted felon so he must destroy and control any institutions which may challenge him such as law firms, judges, universities, think tanks, prominent individuals, the media, democrats, moderate “Republicans”, foreign leaders, etc etc.
4) Maintain the Base: Flood the media with propaganda, lies and distortions to confuse and distract the media and ultimately the public to keep pressure on Congress and threaten any individual or institution that may challenge him. Immigrants playing a desperate role here.
Everything Trump (or Krasnov as the KGB / FSB calls him) does falls into one of these pillars of tyranny and fascism.
As stated in King Lear; ‘Tis the time’s plague, the madman leads the blind.
FWIW, his first term delivered on promises to multiple constituents. Tax cuts as noted. A full slate of judges for Heritage, including 6-3 Supreme Court majority. Killed the JCPOA for Netanyahu. Aggressive actions against China (foolishly then as now). Created the Space Force for the military. Started to build "the wall". KGB is long gone by the way.
This time around his actions dominated by consolidation-of-power concerns, esp in response to Russiagate from the first term. That's what DOGE was really about - pulling funding on corners of the executive branch that were notably allied against him. ICE, and a greatly enlarged DHS (50%+ budget increase!) now now serves as a proto-fascist internal police to intimidate opponents. The grift is central, as it always was. The deals and foreign policy is also as always, Sound and Fury, signifying ... not that much. The occasional truth bomb like his recent speech to the Gulfies acknowledging the failings of Imperial USA, confuses everyone, but won't be followed by action.
The populism is just a veil. The three pillars I see are actually straight up Reagan Republican principles. Phrased with apologies to Tupac rather than Shakespeare, just for color: Looting, Shooting, and Polluting.
To your broader point, two of the principal targets of the TPU “strategy” (Canada and China) are diversifying away from US markets and into stronger bilateral ties.
From the perspective of somebody who has never supported Mr. Trump, but has spent nearly twenty years closely observing and at times participating in the US government’s response to China, I think a few things are worth noting:
1) While both sides may prepare for it, hot war is not an attractive option between two nuclear superpowers. Economic warfare is far more palatable. Chinese industrial policy is closely aligned with national security and geopolitical goals. We should allow for the possibility that the U.S. is now using nascent tariff and industrial policy for the same reason. The pursuit of geopolitical ends, not domestic economic ends.
2) In a “war”, which is a more useful lens through which to view the conflict than traditional economic policy, one does not broadcast strategy and tactics. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. And that includes the bond market.
3) There is no issue quite like China that enjoys such a level of unanimity across parties and across administrations in our government. They are all hawks at this point. Some are more willing than others to actually do something about it.
4) The thinly veiled purpose of the reciprocal tariffs is not so much to coerce third parties to lower barriers to the U.S. so much as it is to raise barriers on China. So much so that the Chinese immediately threatened retaliation on any third parties who did. The UK has agreed to raise barriers on China and the EU has now signaled a willingness to do so as well. One suspects others will soon follow.
5) Countries all over the world including ASEAN were already engaged in trade disputes with China due to dumping. So when China rerouted so many finished goods following 4/2, it further aggravated those tensions with 3rd party countries. There is now an incentive and a sense of urgency to work with the U.S. on deals that will block dumping.
6) We have never gone to war because it is good for consumer and business confidence, or growth, or inflation or the stock and bond markets. We go to war because of perceived existential threats and undue aggression against our own vital national interests or those of our treaty allies. China has crossed too many lines. This, I believe, is how we are choosing to fight back.
To try and interpret what we’re seeing solely through the lens of manufacturing jobs and stock prices is to miss the point, in my view. Our economies could face a hard decoupling any day and without warning. Everyone has seen how bad that would be. That in itself is useful. US importers have now been warned to diversify their sourcing and the delays provide time to do so. After a decade of military escalation between the two countries and with the example of Russia-Ukraine fresh in mind, such a warning about overdependence on Chinese suppliers should not have been necessary for American firms, but it clearly is. They now have a chance to course correct. It is a temporary challenge for our firms, but a permanent loss for China’s export dependent economy. This will indeed go on for years. And the uncertainty is a permanent feature whether Donald Trump is in office or not.
There is a unified theory of Trump and it’s simple as it only has three pillars:
1) Policy Goal: Extend the expiring tax cuts via reconciliation. This was his only achievement in Trump 1.0 and to do this he must demonstrate the tax cuts will be revenue neutral so raising import taxes and cutting government services and all forms of foreign aid are part of this.
2) Personal Enrichment: Make as much money for himself and family as possible. This is so insidious and audacious as per everything from NFTs and gold sneakers to cryptocurrency bribes and 747 airplanes. This is the greatest corruption in American history.
3) Personal Protection: He is still a convicted felon so he must destroy and control any institutions which may challenge him such as law firms, judges, universities, think tanks, prominent individuals, the media, democrats, moderate “Republicans”, foreign leaders, etc etc.
4) Maintain the Base: Flood the media with propaganda, lies and distortions to confuse and distract the media and ultimately the public to keep pressure on Congress and threaten any individual or institution that may challenge him. Immigrants playing a desperate role here.
Everything Trump (or Krasnov as the KGB / FSB calls him) does falls into one of these pillars of tyranny and fascism.
As stated in King Lear; ‘Tis the time’s plague, the madman leads the blind.
FWIW, his first term delivered on promises to multiple constituents. Tax cuts as noted. A full slate of judges for Heritage, including 6-3 Supreme Court majority. Killed the JCPOA for Netanyahu. Aggressive actions against China (foolishly then as now). Created the Space Force for the military. Started to build "the wall". KGB is long gone by the way.
This time around his actions dominated by consolidation-of-power concerns, esp in response to Russiagate from the first term. That's what DOGE was really about - pulling funding on corners of the executive branch that were notably allied against him. ICE, and a greatly enlarged DHS (50%+ budget increase!) now now serves as a proto-fascist internal police to intimidate opponents. The grift is central, as it always was. The deals and foreign policy is also as always, Sound and Fury, signifying ... not that much. The occasional truth bomb like his recent speech to the Gulfies acknowledging the failings of Imperial USA, confuses everyone, but won't be followed by action.
The populism is just a veil. The three pillars I see are actually straight up Reagan Republican principles. Phrased with apologies to Tupac rather than Shakespeare, just for color: Looting, Shooting, and Polluting.
To your broader point, two of the principal targets of the TPU “strategy” (Canada and China) are diversifying away from US markets and into stronger bilateral ties.
From the perspective of somebody who has never supported Mr. Trump, but has spent nearly twenty years closely observing and at times participating in the US government’s response to China, I think a few things are worth noting:
1) While both sides may prepare for it, hot war is not an attractive option between two nuclear superpowers. Economic warfare is far more palatable. Chinese industrial policy is closely aligned with national security and geopolitical goals. We should allow for the possibility that the U.S. is now using nascent tariff and industrial policy for the same reason. The pursuit of geopolitical ends, not domestic economic ends.
2) In a “war”, which is a more useful lens through which to view the conflict than traditional economic policy, one does not broadcast strategy and tactics. No plan survives first contact with the enemy. And that includes the bond market.
3) There is no issue quite like China that enjoys such a level of unanimity across parties and across administrations in our government. They are all hawks at this point. Some are more willing than others to actually do something about it.
4) The thinly veiled purpose of the reciprocal tariffs is not so much to coerce third parties to lower barriers to the U.S. so much as it is to raise barriers on China. So much so that the Chinese immediately threatened retaliation on any third parties who did. The UK has agreed to raise barriers on China and the EU has now signaled a willingness to do so as well. One suspects others will soon follow.
5) Countries all over the world including ASEAN were already engaged in trade disputes with China due to dumping. So when China rerouted so many finished goods following 4/2, it further aggravated those tensions with 3rd party countries. There is now an incentive and a sense of urgency to work with the U.S. on deals that will block dumping.
6) We have never gone to war because it is good for consumer and business confidence, or growth, or inflation or the stock and bond markets. We go to war because of perceived existential threats and undue aggression against our own vital national interests or those of our treaty allies. China has crossed too many lines. This, I believe, is how we are choosing to fight back.
To try and interpret what we’re seeing solely through the lens of manufacturing jobs and stock prices is to miss the point, in my view. Our economies could face a hard decoupling any day and without warning. Everyone has seen how bad that would be. That in itself is useful. US importers have now been warned to diversify their sourcing and the delays provide time to do so. After a decade of military escalation between the two countries and with the example of Russia-Ukraine fresh in mind, such a warning about overdependence on Chinese suppliers should not have been necessary for American firms, but it clearly is. They now have a chance to course correct. It is a temporary challenge for our firms, but a permanent loss for China’s export dependent economy. This will indeed go on for years. And the uncertainty is a permanent feature whether Donald Trump is in office or not.