IMF Projections only go thru 2030. Their per capita calculations are linked to UN demographic stats. Latest medium variant UN estimates (2024) show total Chinese population declining by 10.5% from 2024 to 2049, hitting 1.274 billion by 2049.
5.75 pa for 20 years from an economy this size is large; would falling short of that really be a failing? Given the development which has already occurred, that is, given the starting point of today, wouldn’t, say, 2-3x developed economies be a good result?
curious what is the population figure IMF project to calculate 2049 per capita GDP
IMF Projections only go thru 2030. Their per capita calculations are linked to UN demographic stats. Latest medium variant UN estimates (2024) show total Chinese population declining by 10.5% from 2024 to 2049, hitting 1.274 billion by 2049.
5.75 pa for 20 years from an economy this size is large; would falling short of that really be a failing? Given the development which has already occurred, that is, given the starting point of today, wouldn’t, say, 2-3x developed economies be a good result?
Yes, it would be a good result were it not for the promise Xi made that China would converse on the developed world’s per capita GDP by 2049.