FWIW, China is decreasingly dependent on exports, contra the thesis of increased dependence.
Not sure about global recession, probably depends on how the financial games turn out. With US putting up barriers, ROW in principle gets discount on all kinds of goods, so not necessarily bad. Biggest factor might be US strategic imperatives, to make sure others suffer more than we do. Without ability to cause China more pain than ourselves, we must then find another victim to uphold ego. EU is the natural punching bag, since they never hit back, but it's traditional to warm up on third world countries as an appetizer.
But I think the real strategic impact going forward is from US export restrictions. US tech champions forced to exit PRC against their will by the US's own policy! 5 years from now the next president will complain that Chinese version of NVIDIA ate their lunch, boo hoo, so unfair.
However memories are short, and for now export restrictions can be dressed up as a win by the US administration.
The author makes a good case to the potential dangers to the world economy. But Trump probably doesn’t care about the rest of the world since for him it is “America First.” Trump was born in the 1940s. From 1949 to 1972 America had a trade embargo on China. Our countries were totally decoupled. So Trump remembers the American economy in those years was pretty good, and most things were manufactured in the US.
FWIW, China is decreasingly dependent on exports, contra the thesis of increased dependence.
Not sure about global recession, probably depends on how the financial games turn out. With US putting up barriers, ROW in principle gets discount on all kinds of goods, so not necessarily bad. Biggest factor might be US strategic imperatives, to make sure others suffer more than we do. Without ability to cause China more pain than ourselves, we must then find another victim to uphold ego. EU is the natural punching bag, since they never hit back, but it's traditional to warm up on third world countries as an appetizer.
But I think the real strategic impact going forward is from US export restrictions. US tech champions forced to exit PRC against their will by the US's own policy! 5 years from now the next president will complain that Chinese version of NVIDIA ate their lunch, boo hoo, so unfair.
However memories are short, and for now export restrictions can be dressed up as a win by the US administration.
The author makes a good case to the potential dangers to the world economy. But Trump probably doesn’t care about the rest of the world since for him it is “America First.” Trump was born in the 1940s. From 1949 to 1972 America had a trade embargo on China. Our countries were totally decoupled. So Trump remembers the American economy in those years was pretty good, and most things were manufactured in the US.