One of the key Harris points was a Trump with no guardrails. However, I see eight areas where he will be reigned in:
1) Democratic Governors. There are 23 vowing like Pritzker in Illinois; “To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans: I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior,” he said. “You come for my people, you come through me.”
2) Democrats. In the Senate they have the power of the Filibuster. The MAGA crew can repeal it but will they? Watch the race for majority leader as I don’t believe John Thune or John Cornyn would do it, but Rick Scott would in a heartbeat.
3) Military leaders. Trump can replace anyone in the Military he wants. According to the current DefSec; “In terms of selection of leaders — firing of leaders — it is the prerogative of the commander in chief to select his leaders, and everyone knows that,” Austin said. The question is how far will the military go in supporting Trump. I believe the military will honor its oath to the Constitution. Robert E Lee suggests some may do otherwise.
4) The people. The vast majority of the American people are very opposed to MAGA policies and will push back hard on critical issues from the right and the left.
5) Moderate Republicans. I would remind everyone that The Watergate break-in was June 17, 1972. Nixon was elected in a total landslide 143 days later.
He was inaugurated on January 20th, 1973 and resigned 566 days later on August 9, 1974.
Before impeaching Nixon they had to get rid on Agnew, which they did on October 10, 1973. Only 263 days after inauguration. Listen to that incredible story on Rachel Maddows podcast “Bag Man”.
Trump is an old man and may not make it through his term. Nine Presidents didn’t. No doubt Vance has skeletons and he really has no political base.
Trump got the same popular vote as before, no growth. How long will they tolerate Trump at the margin.
If MAGA takes the house who will be speaker and can they actually get anything done? Unlikely.
5) SCOTUS. Too many assume the Supremes are a rubber stamp. I don’t believe it and they may prove to be a guardrail in selected circumstances.
We will need two, maybe three, of these to protect ourselves but America has seen worse and survived
6) The Fed. Powell won’t resign and can’t be fired. The Fed can be weakened but I believe the consensus will hold against over politicization.
7) DOJ. It has held before and will hold again. Yes the AG can and will be his meat puppet (see Bill Barr) but DOJ is a large powerful institution and the FBI has not rolled over.
8) Intel Community. Trump was held to account by Vindman who is now in Congress. They are the toughest smartest most committed bastards in the government and will keep a close eye on the White House!
All excellent points — but consistent with the broad theme of my piece that conflict is likely to intensify during Trump 2.0 and do so with adverse consequences for the global economy and the US-China conflict. I am not suggesting who might prevail in the conflicts you describe above -- just underscoring the likelihood that conflict is likely to be a permanent feature of Trump 2.0.
The Trump /MAGA brand is “War”. So you are right. There will be battles won and lost but the War will go on for years if not decades. This conservative War began with the New Deal and the fascist threats of the 29-30’s, intensified under Brown vs Board of Education in 1954, was personified by McCarthy then Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan, “W” and Trump 1.0 & 2.0.
China is just collateral damage to achieve other goals. Musk/Tesla wants EV tariffs while Bezos/Amazon does not. Harold Hamm/Koch wants unrestricted fossil fuel use and development, Adelson wants unrestricted online and casino gaming. It goes on to hedge funds and banks and chemical industry and agriculture etc etc.
Special interests are running the table. We will see about global conflicts. Will Bibi be allowed his genocidal reign in Gaza leading to a reoccupation and takeover of Gaza/PLA offshore gas reserves worth half a trillion (see Gaza Marine) and a war with Iran? Will Trump cut off Ukraine and leave it to the EU or appease Putin with current gains? How much will the Middle Eastern nations pay Trump as they did Jared. $3billion? Will Trump cave on Taiwan? Will he scrap the income tax for tariffs and/ir a national sales tax? Will Musk buy Truth Social for $8 billion. Just this week, based on Teslas share price Musk made $54 billion! Read again, stock is up $75 and Musk owns about 730 million shares. $54 billion. So what if he lost $25 billion on Twitter?
About 100 donors and congressional leaders will decide. Will the upper middle or lower class be considered? Not on your life!
One of the key Harris points was a Trump with no guardrails. However, I see eight areas where he will be reigned in:
1) Democratic Governors. There are 23 vowing like Pritzker in Illinois; “To anyone who intends to come take away the freedom and opportunity and dignity of Illinoisans: I would remind you that a happy warrior is still a warrior,” he said. “You come for my people, you come through me.”
2) Democrats. In the Senate they have the power of the Filibuster. The MAGA crew can repeal it but will they? Watch the race for majority leader as I don’t believe John Thune or John Cornyn would do it, but Rick Scott would in a heartbeat.
3) Military leaders. Trump can replace anyone in the Military he wants. According to the current DefSec; “In terms of selection of leaders — firing of leaders — it is the prerogative of the commander in chief to select his leaders, and everyone knows that,” Austin said. The question is how far will the military go in supporting Trump. I believe the military will honor its oath to the Constitution. Robert E Lee suggests some may do otherwise.
4) The people. The vast majority of the American people are very opposed to MAGA policies and will push back hard on critical issues from the right and the left.
5) Moderate Republicans. I would remind everyone that The Watergate break-in was June 17, 1972. Nixon was elected in a total landslide 143 days later.
He was inaugurated on January 20th, 1973 and resigned 566 days later on August 9, 1974.
Before impeaching Nixon they had to get rid on Agnew, which they did on October 10, 1973. Only 263 days after inauguration. Listen to that incredible story on Rachel Maddows podcast “Bag Man”.
Trump is an old man and may not make it through his term. Nine Presidents didn’t. No doubt Vance has skeletons and he really has no political base.
Trump got the same popular vote as before, no growth. How long will they tolerate Trump at the margin.
If MAGA takes the house who will be speaker and can they actually get anything done? Unlikely.
5) SCOTUS. Too many assume the Supremes are a rubber stamp. I don’t believe it and they may prove to be a guardrail in selected circumstances.
We will need two, maybe three, of these to protect ourselves but America has seen worse and survived
https://youtu.be/T_PsypZTxlw?si=V-6Q6ecG0egHDiiP
So those are guardrails to watch.
6) The Fed. Powell won’t resign and can’t be fired. The Fed can be weakened but I believe the consensus will hold against over politicization.
7) DOJ. It has held before and will hold again. Yes the AG can and will be his meat puppet (see Bill Barr) but DOJ is a large powerful institution and the FBI has not rolled over.
8) Intel Community. Trump was held to account by Vindman who is now in Congress. They are the toughest smartest most committed bastards in the government and will keep a close eye on the White House!
All excellent points — but consistent with the broad theme of my piece that conflict is likely to intensify during Trump 2.0 and do so with adverse consequences for the global economy and the US-China conflict. I am not suggesting who might prevail in the conflicts you describe above -- just underscoring the likelihood that conflict is likely to be a permanent feature of Trump 2.0.
The Trump /MAGA brand is “War”. So you are right. There will be battles won and lost but the War will go on for years if not decades. This conservative War began with the New Deal and the fascist threats of the 29-30’s, intensified under Brown vs Board of Education in 1954, was personified by McCarthy then Goldwater, Nixon, Reagan, “W” and Trump 1.0 & 2.0.
China is just collateral damage to achieve other goals. Musk/Tesla wants EV tariffs while Bezos/Amazon does not. Harold Hamm/Koch wants unrestricted fossil fuel use and development, Adelson wants unrestricted online and casino gaming. It goes on to hedge funds and banks and chemical industry and agriculture etc etc.
Special interests are running the table. We will see about global conflicts. Will Bibi be allowed his genocidal reign in Gaza leading to a reoccupation and takeover of Gaza/PLA offshore gas reserves worth half a trillion (see Gaza Marine) and a war with Iran? Will Trump cut off Ukraine and leave it to the EU or appease Putin with current gains? How much will the Middle Eastern nations pay Trump as they did Jared. $3billion? Will Trump cave on Taiwan? Will he scrap the income tax for tariffs and/ir a national sales tax? Will Musk buy Truth Social for $8 billion. Just this week, based on Teslas share price Musk made $54 billion! Read again, stock is up $75 and Musk owns about 730 million shares. $54 billion. So what if he lost $25 billion on Twitter?
About 100 donors and congressional leaders will decide. Will the upper middle or lower class be considered? Not on your life!
So much for Trump 2.0 being pitched as a victory of the middle class over the elites!