The bluff has already been called, and Trump's team didn't have the conviction to see it through - most thankfully. Happened in plain sight for all the world to see.
The name of the game now for Washington for the rest of the year is saving face. They'll find some less powerful targets to bully and call it a win. World gradually moves on.
" the benefits the United States has received from trade — not just cheaper goods and expanded consumer purchasing power but also the foreign capital inflows that subsidize US interest rates which, in turn, provide support for financial wealth creation." This is clearly true. The benefits of free trade / globalization.
I believe t is also true, the US manufacturing sector and the related blue collar jobs have indeed been hollowed out.
On a country basis, free trade is a win - win.
Not so when when the benefits of free trade are accrued unequally to capital vs labor.
If you agree with my observation, what do you propose?
I would trust more the solid evidence that China’s massive rise the past three decades is the result of big trade surpluses and massive industrialization. Before China, Japan and Germany arose with very strong economies on the backs of strong trade supluses and manufacturing. The evidence is clear for strong trade and manufacturing.
The 30-year Treasury yield is flirting dangerously with the 5% threshold. Interest rates are not just raw numbers: they are signals, messages, clear indicators An episode of stress similar to what the UK experienced in October 2022 cannot be ruled out. In this case, however, it would affect the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate risk-free asset. The consequences could be nonlinear.
The bluff has already been called, and Trump's team didn't have the conviction to see it through - most thankfully. Happened in plain sight for all the world to see.
The name of the game now for Washington for the rest of the year is saving face. They'll find some less powerful targets to bully and call it a win. World gradually moves on.
Mr Roach,
" the benefits the United States has received from trade — not just cheaper goods and expanded consumer purchasing power but also the foreign capital inflows that subsidize US interest rates which, in turn, provide support for financial wealth creation." This is clearly true. The benefits of free trade / globalization.
I believe t is also true, the US manufacturing sector and the related blue collar jobs have indeed been hollowed out.
On a country basis, free trade is a win - win.
Not so when when the benefits of free trade are accrued unequally to capital vs labor.
If you agree with my observation, what do you propose?
I appreciate your letters.
I would trust more the solid evidence that China’s massive rise the past three decades is the result of big trade surpluses and massive industrialization. Before China, Japan and Germany arose with very strong economies on the backs of strong trade supluses and manufacturing. The evidence is clear for strong trade and manufacturing.
The 30-year Treasury yield is flirting dangerously with the 5% threshold. Interest rates are not just raw numbers: they are signals, messages, clear indicators An episode of stress similar to what the UK experienced in October 2022 cannot be ruled out. In this case, however, it would affect the world’s reserve currency and the ultimate risk-free asset. The consequences could be nonlinear.
China's export-led economy? This oft-repeated canard is getting tiresome.
Only the US economy–an export laggard–is less export-dependent than China's.
In fact, China has been largely averse to foreign trade for most of its long history.